Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Larkin 52.2% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 50.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 50.9%
Neutral zone
Larkin 51.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Nelson
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Nelson
Larkin
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
3
Nelson
Larkin
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
3
Nelson
Larkin
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
0
1
Nelson
Larkin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
51.1% (915)
-0.2%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
59.4% (261)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
48.2% (168)
-4.8%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Home / Away
Nelson
Larkin
Home
52.9% (654)
51.7% (686)
Away
48.9% (658)
53.0% (658)
By Period
Nelson
Larkin
P1
48.4%
52.5%
P2
54.3%
52.7%
P3
50.5%
51.4%
OT
41.2%
61.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 09:12 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 02:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 06:54 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 04:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 03:58 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 01:00 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 13:02 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 18:39 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 17:35 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 17:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 15:55 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 15:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |