Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 49.1%). Look for McKegg on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs McKegg 49.2% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
McKegg leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 58.8%
Defensive zone
McKegg 65.6%
Neutral zone
McKegg 55.8%
Result
Greg McKegg favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Nelson
McKegg
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
9
(11 meetings)
2
9
Nelson
McKegg
Last 10: Nelson 1-9 McKegg
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
McKegg
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McKegg
0
5
Nelson
McKegg
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McKegg
0
3
Nelson
McKegg
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
McKegg
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
49.1% (1,143)
-1.2%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
50.0% (24)
+4.7%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
48.8% (86)
-5.0%
On penalty kill, McKegg has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McKegg shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. McKegg is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (782).
Home / Away
Nelson
McKegg
Home
50.1% (5,878)
50.4% (554)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
48.1% (699)
By Period
Nelson
McKegg
P1
48.7%
48.7%
P2
48.6%
49.9%
P3
47.7%
48.6%
Final 5 min
48.0%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
McKegg
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2021 | 3 | 03:56 | Neutral | Greg McKegg |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 2 | 13:17 | Neutral | Greg McKegg |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 2 | 13:09 | Defensive | Greg McKegg |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 2 | 13:01 | Defensive | Greg McKegg |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 13:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 25, 2020 | 2 | 07:06 | Offensive | Greg McKegg |
| Jan 16, 2020 | 2 | 06:15 | Defensive | Greg McKegg |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 1 | 15:50 | Defensive | Greg McKegg |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 1 | 13:42 | Neutral | Greg McKegg |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 1 | 10:37 | Defensive | Greg McKegg |
| Jan 8, 2019 | 1 | 07:01 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |