Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +14.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Hughes 39.5% (+14.7%)
H2H factor
Hughes leads 6-6 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 52.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 75.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 63.6%
63.6%
36.4%
Nelson
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
6
(12 meetings)
6
6
Nelson
Hughes
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
0
2
Nelson
Hughes
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
1
Nelson
Hughes
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hughes
1
3
Nelson
Hughes
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
36.7% (305)
+14.2%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
14.3% (7)
+45.5%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
33.3% (6)
+10.1%
On power play, Nelson has a +45.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Hughes is 33.0% vs left-shot opponents (206).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hughes
Home
52.9% (654)
35.8% (159)
Away
48.9% (658)
36.5% (159)
By Period
Nelson
Hughes
P1
48.4%
42.3%
P2
54.3%
28.2%
P3
50.5%
37.2%
Final 5 min
51.9%
27.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Hughes
38.0%▬
37.0%
36.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 03:10 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 16:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 10:25 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 04:58 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 17:54 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 15:45 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 11:21 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 3 | 06:03 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 2 | 00:43 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 17:03 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 12:05 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 1 | 09:09 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |