Scouting Report
Jason Dickinson holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Dickinson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Dickinson 50.0% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 53.1%
Defensive zone
Dickinson 88.4%
Neutral zone
Dickinson 72.7%
Result
Jason Dickinson favored at 74.1%
25.9%
74.1%
Nelson
Dickinson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Nelson
Dickinson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Dickinson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Dickinson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dickinson
0
1
Nelson
Dickinson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Dickinson
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
51.2% (912)
-5.1%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
63.8% (58)
-29.3%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
42.9% (266)
-12.5%
On power play, Dickinson has a +29.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dickinson shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Dickinson is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (807).
Home / Away
Nelson
Dickinson
Home
48.7% (419)
52.9% (664)
Away
41.3% (368)
46.7% (572)
By Period
Nelson
Dickinson
P1
44.6%
49.0%
P2
47.3%
48.3%
P3
43.0%
52.5%
OT
100.0%
61.5%
Final 5 min
39.4%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
46.0%▬
46.0%
45.2%
Dickinson
54.0%▬
54.5%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2024 | 3 | 09:25 | Neutral | Jason Dickinson |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 3 | 00:10 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 2 | 13:29 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 2, 2024 | 1 | 18:30 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |