Brock Nelson vs Jesperi Kotkaniemi
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Kotkaniemi 48.6% (+3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kotkaniemi 68.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 59.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.9%
53.9%
46.1%
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kotkaniemi
0
1
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
47.3% (207)
+3.6%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
100.0% (3)
-40.2%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
33.3% (3)
+10.1%
On power play, Kotkaniemi has a +40.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kotkaniemi shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Kotkaniemi is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (116).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
Home
52.9% (654)
46.5% (129)
Away
48.9% (658)
50.0% (84)
By Period
Nelson
Kotkaniemi
P1
48.4%
51.3%
P2
54.3%
46.1%
P3
50.5%
45.9%
Final 5 min
51.9%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Kotkaniemi
52.0%▲
49.0%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2025 | 2 | 12:19 | Neutral | Jesperi Kotkaniemi |