Scouting Report
John Mitchell holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Mitchell 51.0% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Mitchell 52.2%
Defensive zone
Mitchell 72.5%
Neutral zone
Mitchell 65.6%
Result
John Mitchell favored at 66.3%
33.7%
66.3%
Nelson
Mitchell
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
Nelson
Mitchell
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Mitchell
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mitchell
0
2
Nelson
Mitchell
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Mitchell
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
0
Nelson
Mitchell
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Mitchell
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
51.8% (2,965)
-3.9%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
54.1% (196)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
44.1% (401)
-0.3%
On even strength, Mitchell has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mitchell shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Mitchell is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,298).
Home / Away
Nelson
Mitchell
Home
50.1% (5,878)
54.4% (1,806)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
47.6% (1,756)
By Period
Nelson
Mitchell
P1
48.7%
52.0%
P2
48.6%
49.9%
P3
47.7%
50.9%
OT
45.6%
69.2%
Final 5 min
48.0%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Mitchell
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2017 | 3 | 19:09 | Offensive | John Mitchell |
| Feb 12, 2017 | 3 | 09:58 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 12, 2017 | 1 | 16:25 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2017 | 1 | 02:20 | Defensive | John Mitchell |
| Nov 11, 2014 | 2 | 13:02 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 30, 2014 | 3 | 15:48 | Offensive | John Mitchell |
| Oct 30, 2014 | 3 | 05:50 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 30, 2014 | 3 | 05:43 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 30, 2014 | 2 | 08:59 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 30, 2014 | 2 | 03:25 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 30, 2014 | 1 | 03:55 | Defensive | John Mitchell |
| Feb 8, 2014 | 1 | 13:04 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |