Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 47.8%). Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Jooris 48.0% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 70.3%
Defensive zone
Jooris 53.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 55.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Nelson
Jooris
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Nelson
Jooris
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Jooris
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jooris
0
2
Nelson
Jooris
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
1
Nelson
Jooris
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Jooris
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Jooris
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
48.6% (1,221)
-0.7%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
61.0% (41)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
39.4% (175)
+4.4%
On power play, Jooris has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jooris shoots right. Nelson is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (4,097).
Nelson shoots left. Jooris is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (979).
Home / Away
Nelson
Jooris
Home
50.1% (5,878)
49.0% (786)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
46.4% (651)
By Period
Nelson
Jooris
P1
48.7%
47.5%
P2
48.6%
44.3%
P3
47.7%
51.3%
OT
45.6%
66.7%
Final 5 min
48.0%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Jooris
48.0%▲
43.5%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2018 | 1 | 13:03 | Defensive | Josh Jooris |
| Nov 16, 2017 | 1 | 17:30 | Neutral | Josh Jooris |
| Jan 7, 2017 | 3 | 01:08 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 27, 2015 | 1 | 01:02 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 2, 2015 | 3 | 16:26 | Offensive | Josh Jooris |
| Jan 2, 2015 | 3 | 06:32 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 2, 2015 | 2 | 15:20 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 2, 2015 | 2 | 12:19 | Offensive | Josh Jooris |
| Jan 2, 2015 | 2 | 10:49 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 2, 2015 | 1 | 19:05 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |