Scouting Report
Mark Jankowski holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Jankowski 53.1% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jankowski 59.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 54.5%
Neutral zone
Jankowski 51.3%
Result
Mark Jankowski favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Nelson
Jankowski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Nelson
Jankowski
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Jankowski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Jankowski
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
53.7% (555)
-2.8%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
50.0% (14)
+9.8%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
54.3% (46)
-10.9%
On penalty kill, Jankowski has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Jankowski shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Jankowski is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (379).
Home / Away
Nelson
Jankowski
Home
52.9% (654)
53.2% (331)
Away
48.9% (658)
54.2% (284)
By Period
Nelson
Jankowski
P1
48.4%
52.7%
P2
54.3%
55.8%
P3
50.5%
52.5%
Final 5 min
51.9%
54.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Jankowski
52.0%▲
50.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 3 | 16:59 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |