Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kastelic on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Kastelic 58.1% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 88.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 58.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 70.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 66.9%
66.9%
33.1%
Nelson
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Nelson
Kastelic
Last 5: Nelson 1-4 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Kastelic
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
3
Nelson
Kastelic
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kastelic
0
1
Nelson
Kastelic
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
60.8% (362)
-9.9%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
83.3% (6)
-23.5%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
56.2% (146)
-12.8%
On power play, Kastelic has a +23.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Nelson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Kastelic is 58.4% vs left-shot opponents (430).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kastelic
Home
52.9% (654)
60.3% (242)
Away
48.9% (658)
59.2% (272)
By Period
Nelson
Kastelic
P1
48.4%
58.9%
P2
54.3%
57.3%
P3
50.5%
64.0%
OT
41.2%
53.8%
Final 5 min
51.9%
66.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Kastelic
56.0%▼
61.5%
59.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 19:19 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 06:40 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 17:58 | Defensive | Mark Kastelic |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 12:31 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |