Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 48.7%). Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs McTavish 48.7% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 12-9 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 51.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 56.4%
Neutral zone
McTavish 52.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.7%
51.7%
48.3%
Nelson
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
9
(21 meetings)
12
9
Nelson
McTavish
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
2
Nelson
McTavish
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
1
Nelson
McTavish
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
2
6
Nelson
McTavish
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
48.2% (2,790)
-0.3%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
52.8% (436)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
34.3% (35)
+9.5%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. McTavish is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (2,158).
Home / Away
Nelson
McTavish
Home
50.1% (5,878)
49.8% (1,680)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
47.4% (1,581)
By Period
Nelson
McTavish
P1
48.7%
50.0%
P2
48.6%
47.7%
P3
47.7%
48.4%
OT
45.6%
43.5%
Final 5 min
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
McTavish
48.0%▲
45.5%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 03:38 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 17:43 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 08:11 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 3 | 10:56 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 11:48 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 11:37 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 04:25 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 04:19 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 2 | 01:24 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 13:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 10:56 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 08:53 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 11, 2025 | 1 | 00:28 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Mar 15, 2023 | 3 | 15:05 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |