Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Backlund 49.8% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 84.8%
Defensive zone
Backlund 58.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 59.3%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 71.4%
71.4%
28.6%
Nelson
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Nelson
Backlund
Last 7: Nelson 5-2 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
0
Nelson
Backlund
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
1
Nelson
Backlund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Backlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
50.5% (944)
+0.4%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
51.5% (66)
+8.3%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
47.1% (297)
-3.7%
On power play, Nelson has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (938).
Home / Away
Nelson
Backlund
Home
52.9% (654)
48.1% (636)
Away
48.9% (658)
51.4% (671)
By Period
Nelson
Backlund
P1
48.4%
45.4%
P2
54.3%
54.1%
P3
50.5%
49.2%
OT
41.2%
55.6%
Final 5 min
51.9%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 17:05 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 06:24 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 02:03 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2 | 18:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 1 | 17:11 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 1 | 11:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 1 | 05:28 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |