Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Bjugstad 49.5% (+1.5%)
Offensive zone
Nelson 62.4%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 53.8%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 50.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Nelson
Bjugstad
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
49.7% (292)
+1.2%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
50.0% (6)
+9.8%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
47.2% (36)
-3.8%
On power play, Nelson has a +9.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Nelson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (260).
Home / Away
Nelson
Bjugstad
Home
52.9% (654)
48.7% (193)
Away
48.9% (658)
50.4% (141)
By Period
Nelson
Bjugstad
P1
48.4%
41.5%
P2
54.3%
57.3%
P3
50.5%
50.0%
OT
41.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.4%