Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Foligno 49.9% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 62.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 50.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 55.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 56.2%
56.2%
43.8%
Nelson
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Nelson
Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Foligno
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Foligno
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
Nelson
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
49.5% (291)
+1.4%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
55.8% (43)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
47.2% (53)
-3.8%
On power play, Nelson has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Foligno is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (208).
Home / Away
Nelson
Foligno
Home
52.9% (654)
48.9% (178)
Away
48.9% (658)
50.7% (209)
By Period
Nelson
Foligno
P1
48.4%
43.0%
P2
54.3%
55.9%
P3
50.5%
50.0%
OT
41.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Foligno
54.0%▲
50.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 16:37 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 18:44 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 18:33 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |