Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Schmaltz 46.6% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 56.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 88.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 73.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 75.6%
75.6%
24.4%
Nelson
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
8
(20 meetings)
12
8
Nelson
Schmaltz
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
1
4
Nelson
Schmaltz
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
8
1
Nelson
Schmaltz
9 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Nelson
Schmaltz
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
45.9% (697)
+5.0%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
47.9% (117)
+11.9%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
48.0% (25)
-4.6%
On power play, Nelson has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Nelson is 51.6% vs right-shot opponents (455).
Nelson shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.8% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Home / Away
Nelson
Schmaltz
Home
52.9% (654)
44.9% (434)
Away
48.9% (658)
47.7% (405)
By Period
Nelson
Schmaltz
P1
48.4%
41.5%
P2
54.3%
46.7%
P3
50.5%
51.1%
OT
41.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Schmaltz
42.0%▼
46.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 14:39 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 11:38 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 2 | 04:30 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 18:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 04:38 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 25, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 14:46 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 11:27 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 11:20 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 06:09 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 05:33 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 10:48 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 04:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 03:09 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 07:31 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 17:53 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 08:20 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 17:44 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 14:34 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 03:17 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |