Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Sturm 53.6% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 62.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 76.7%
Neutral zone
Sturm 58.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 62.5%
62.5%
37.5%
Nelson
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Nelson
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Sturm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
54.6% (271)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
54.4% (90)
-11.0%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Nelson
Sturm
Home
52.9% (654)
53.0% (168)
Away
48.9% (658)
56.0% (193)
By Period
Nelson
Sturm
P1
48.4%
58.2%
P2
54.3%
53.2%
P3
50.5%
52.3%
OT
41.2%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 09:59 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 03:43 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |