Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.2% vs 44.5%). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Cates 45.8% (+0.7%)
Offensive zone
Nelson 62.2%
Defensive zone
Cates 55.2%
Neutral zone
Cates 51.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
Nelson
Cates
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
44.3% (271)
+1.8%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
77.8% (18)
-43.3%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
31.7% (41)
-1.3%
On power play, Cates has a +43.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Cates is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (224).
Home / Away
Nelson
Cates
Home
48.7% (419)
52.0% (148)
Away
41.3% (368)
38.5% (182)
By Period
Nelson
Cates
P1
44.6%
42.7%
P2
47.3%
42.9%
P3
43.0%
48.5%
Final 5 min
39.4%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
45.2%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
44.5%