Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Elias on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Elias 42.7% (+5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Elias 74.2%
Defensive zone
Elias 75.2%
Neutral zone
Elias 78.2%
Result
Patrik Elias favored at 76.6%
23.4%
76.6%
Nelson
Elias
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Nelson
Elias
Last 8: Nelson 2-6 Elias
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Elias
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Elias
1
2
Nelson
Elias
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Elias
0
4
Nelson
Elias
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Elias
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
42.3% (2,591)
+5.6%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
48.4% (405)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
36.0% (367)
+7.8%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Elias shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Elias is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,229).
Home / Away
Nelson
Elias
Home
50.1% (5,878)
43.2% (1,683)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
41.7% (1,725)
By Period
Nelson
Elias
P1
48.7%
41.1%
P2
48.6%
43.1%
P3
47.7%
43.0%
OT
45.6%
43.2%
Final 5 min
48.0%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Elias
40.0%▲
37.5%
42.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2014 | 2 | 16:47 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Nov 29, 2014 | 1 | 02:49 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 11, 2014 | OT | 03:18 | Defensive | Patrik Elias |
| Mar 29, 2014 | 3 | 15:19 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Mar 29, 2014 | 3 | 12:53 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Mar 29, 2014 | 3 | 10:10 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 1, 2014 | 2 | 12:46 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |
| Mar 1, 2014 | 2 | 06:14 | Neutral | Patrik Elias |