Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Zacha 51.8% (-1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 54.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 51.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Nelson
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
8
(9 meetings)
1
8
Nelson
Zacha
Last 9: Nelson 1-8 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
2
Nelson
Zacha
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
2
Nelson
Zacha
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
4
Nelson
Zacha
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
53.0% (700)
-2.1%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
54.1% (109)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
39.2% (74)
+4.2%
On power play, Nelson has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Zacha is 51.5% vs left-shot opponents (520).
Home / Away
Nelson
Zacha
Home
52.9% (654)
51.6% (438)
Away
48.9% (658)
52.4% (445)
By Period
Nelson
Zacha
P1
48.4%
57.0%
P2
54.3%
48.9%
P3
50.5%
50.5%
OT
41.2%
42.1%
Final 5 min
51.9%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Zacha
56.0%▲
50.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 12:29 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 09:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 14:16 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 07:26 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 01:32 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 13:10 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 12:55 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 07:08 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 03:11 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |