Scouting Report
Ryan Carpenter holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Carpenter 51.2% (-2.1%)
Offensive zone
Nelson 79.4%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 74.6%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 50.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.4%
51.4%
48.6%
Nelson
Carpenter
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
53.2% (299)
-3.3%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
33.3% (3)
+19.5%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
46.5% (86)
-17.9%
On power play, Nelson has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Nelson is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Nelson shoots left. Carpenter is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Home / Away
Nelson
Carpenter
Home
49.8% (458)
54.6% (207)
Away
49.0% (506)
48.1% (181)
By Period
Nelson
Carpenter
P1
50.1%
52.3%
P2
45.4%
51.5%
P3
52.7%
50.8%
Final 5 min
47.1%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
49.4%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
51.5%