Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-4.5%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 12-5 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 70.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 68.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 67.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 68.8%
68.8%
31.2%
Nelson
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
12
(17 meetings)
5
12
Nelson
O'Reilly
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
5
Nelson
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
4
Nelson
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Nelson
O'Reilly
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
55.7% (856)
-4.8%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
57.5% (233)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
50.0% (144)
-6.6%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Nelson
O'Reilly
Home
52.9% (654)
55.5% (616)
Away
48.9% (658)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Nelson
O'Reilly
P1
48.4%
58.1%
P2
54.3%
54.9%
P3
50.5%
53.9%
OT
41.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 13:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 06:36 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 04:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 00:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 1 | 13:09 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 16:34 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 15:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 03:11 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 03:01 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 00:54 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 17:42 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 3 | 07:58 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 18:16 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 1 | 10:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |