Scouting Report
Sam Reinhart holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Reinhart 50.5% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 50.5%
Defensive zone
Reinhart 53.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
Nelson
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Nelson
Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
0
1
Nelson
Reinhart
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
49.4% (259)
-2.5%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
54.4% (136)
+3.0%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
47.9% (71)
-22.9%
On penalty kill, Reinhart has a +22.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Reinhart is 48.2% vs left-shot opponents (340).
Home / Away
Nelson
Reinhart
Home
48.9% (521)
54.9% (235)
Away
45.5% (516)
46.3% (231)
By Period
Nelson
Reinhart
P1
45.9%
52.3%
P2
48.0%
50.0%
P3
48.0%
50.0%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
45.3%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
47.3%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 04:32 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |