Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.9% vs 51.1%). Look for Kuraly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Kuraly 51.0% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 71.4%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 63.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
Nelson
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Nelson
Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
2
Nelson
Kuraly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
52.6% (464)
-1.7%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
100.0% (1)
-40.2%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
46.5% (155)
-3.1%
On power play, Kuraly has a +40.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Kuraly is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (385).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kuraly
Home
52.9% (654)
55.9% (322)
Away
48.9% (658)
46.0% (298)
By Period
Nelson
Kuraly
P1
48.4%
55.9%
P2
54.3%
46.7%
P3
50.5%
50.7%
OT
41.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:08 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |