Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.7% vs Novak 42.6% (+9.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 64.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 89.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 84.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 83.8%
83.8%
16.2%
Nelson
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Nelson
Novak
Last 9: Nelson 6-3 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Nelson
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Novak
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (917)
40.5% (405)
+10.3%
Power Play
59.1% (176)
45.5% (33)
+13.6%
On power play, Nelson has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Nelson is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Nelson shoots left. Novak is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Home / Away
Nelson
Novak
Home
52.6% (639)
42.0% (212)
Away
48.9% (658)
39.8% (226)
By Period
Nelson
Novak
P1
48.3%
41.7%
P2
54.0%
39.5%
P3
50.4%
42.1%
OT
41.2%
25.0%
Final 5 min
51.7%
38.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
54.0%▼
55.5%
50.7%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.0%
40.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 17:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 17:29 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 13:39 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 17:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 15:02 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 07:37 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 04:24 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 19:53 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 10:36 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |