Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Novak 43.0% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 81.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 95.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 89.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 91.9%
91.9%
8.1%
Nelson
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
3
(12 meetings)
9
3
Nelson
Novak
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Nelson
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
0
Nelson
Novak
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Novak
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
41.8% (1,568)
+6.1%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
51.5% (134)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
50.0% (2)
-6.2%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +6.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Nelson
Novak
Home
50.1% (5,878)
45.1% (831)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
40.2% (873)
By Period
Nelson
Novak
P1
48.7%
43.7%
P2
48.6%
42.8%
P3
47.7%
41.1%
OT
45.6%
57.1%
Final 5 min
48.0%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 17:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 17:29 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 13:39 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 17:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 15:02 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 07:37 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 04:24 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 19:53 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 10:36 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 10:18 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 02:17 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 30, 2021 | 1 | 12:38 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |