Brock Nelson vs Tommy Novak

All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report

Brock Nelson holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).

Prediction Breakdown
Model XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian) Nelson 48.3% vs Novak 43.0% (+5.7%)
H2H factor Nelson leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone Nelson 81.4%
Defensive zone Nelson 95.6%
Neutral zone Nelson 89.5%
Result Brock Nelson favored at 91.9%
91.9%
8.1%
Nelson Novak
Head-to-Head Record
9 - 3 (12 meetings)
9
3
Nelson Novak
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Novak

Zone Breakdown

Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Nelson Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
0
Nelson Novak
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson Novak
5 total

Situation Matchup

Situation
Nelson
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
41.8% (1,568)
+6.1%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
51.5% (134)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
50.0% (2)
-6.2%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +6.2% edge.

Handedness & Splits

Handedness
Novak shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,584).
Nelson shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Nelson
Novak
Home
50.1% (5,878)
45.1% (831)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
40.2% (873)
By Period
Nelson
Novak
P1
48.7%
43.7%
P2
48.6%
42.8%
P3
47.7%
41.1%
OT
45.6%
57.1%
Final 5 min
48.0%
40.1%

Recent Form

Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%
55.5%
48.3%
Novak
32.0%
39.5%
42.6%

Recent Faceoffs

Date Period Time Zone Winner
Mar 24, 2026 3 17:35 Defensive Brock Nelson
Mar 24, 2026 2 17:29 Neutral Tommy Novak
Mar 24, 2026 2 13:39 Neutral Brock Nelson
Mar 24, 2026 1 17:19 Neutral Brock Nelson
Mar 24, 2026 1 15:02 Neutral Brock Nelson
Mar 24, 2026 1 07:37 Offensive Tommy Novak
Mar 16, 2026 3 04:24 Defensive Brock Nelson
Mar 16, 2026 2 19:53 Defensive Brock Nelson
Mar 16, 2026 2 10:36 Neutral Tommy Novak
Apr 6, 2024 3 10:18 Defensive Brock Nelson
Jan 13, 2024 3 02:17 Defensive Brock Nelson
Oct 30, 2021 1 12:38 Defensive Brock Nelson