Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Boyd 44.1% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 11-4 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 88.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 72.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 84.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 83.9%
83.9%
16.1%
Nelson
Boyd
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
4
(15 meetings)
11
4
Nelson
Boyd
Last 10: Nelson 8-2 Boyd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
2
Nelson
Boyd
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Boyd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Boyd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Boyd
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
44.4% (2,186)
+3.5%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
46.5% (256)
+8.2%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
35.6% (208)
+8.2%
On power play, Nelson has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Boyd shoots right. Nelson is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (4,097).
Nelson shoots left. Boyd is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (1,838).
Home / Away
Nelson
Boyd
Home
50.1% (5,878)
46.3% (1,327)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
41.5% (1,324)
By Period
Nelson
Boyd
P1
48.7%
41.7%
P2
48.6%
46.2%
P3
47.7%
44.0%
OT
45.6%
22.2%
Final 5 min
48.0%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Boyd
50.0%▲
48.0%
43.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2022 | 2 | 17:45 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 3 | 02:50 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 2 | 16:20 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 2 | 07:02 | Offensive | Travis Boyd |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 1 | 19:25 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 3 | 00:23 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 1 | 17:18 | Defensive | Travis Boyd |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 1 | 05:24 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 6, 2019 | 3 | 18:21 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 6, 2019 | 3 | 18:18 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 6, 2019 | 2 | 08:16 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 26, 2018 | 2 | 06:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 3 | 19:47 | Offensive | Travis Boyd |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 1 | 09:02 | Neutral | Travis Boyd |
| Mar 16, 2018 | 1 | 03:14 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |