Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +18.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Zegras 37.0% (+18.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 55.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 88.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 80.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 88.5%
88.5%
11.5%
Nelson
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Nelson
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
33.0% (264)
+17.9%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
32.1% (56)
+27.7%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
50.0% (2)
-6.6%
On power play, Nelson has a +27.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Zegras is 32.5% vs left-shot opponents (200).
Home / Away
Nelson
Zegras
Home
52.9% (654)
35.3% (173)
Away
48.9% (658)
30.2% (149)
By Period
Nelson
Zegras
P1
48.4%
33.0%
P2
54.3%
35.7%
P3
50.5%
29.7%
OT
41.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
29.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
32.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 2 | 05:22 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |