Scouting Report
Tyler Johnson holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnson on offensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 20 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Johnson 49.7% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Johnson leads 29-20 in 49 meetings
Offensive zone
Johnson 50.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 50.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Nelson
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
29
(49 meetings)
20
29
Nelson
Johnson
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
7
13
Nelson
Johnson
20 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
7
8
Nelson
Johnson
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnson
6
8
Nelson
Johnson
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,744)
49.8% (5,396)
-1.9%
Power Play
54.7% (1,149)
54.6% (885)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (790)
42.3% (707)
+1.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Nelson is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (4,097).
Nelson shoots left. Johnson is 49.6% vs left-shot opponents (4,785).
Home / Away
Nelson
Johnson
Home
50.1% (5,878)
52.5% (3,460)
Away
46.5% (5,806)
46.8% (3,528)
By Period
Nelson
Johnson
P1
48.7%
50.1%
P2
48.6%
50.6%
P3
47.7%
48.4%
OT
45.6%
42.5%
Final 5 min
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
48.3%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2024 | 1 | 07:49 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 3 | 00:43 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 2 | 06:10 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 1 | 14:37 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 1, 2019 | 1 | 10:52 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 13, 2019 | 3 | 07:44 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 2 | 02:43 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Nov 14, 2016 | 3 | 09:03 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 14, 2016 | 3 | 08:57 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Nov 14, 2016 | 3 | 05:17 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 14, 2016 | 2 | 13:18 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Nov 14, 2016 | 1 | 17:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 3 | 18:31 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 3 | 18:26 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 3 | 07:21 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 2 | 01:31 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Nov 10, 2016 | 1 | 09:37 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 1, 2016 | 2 | 13:53 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Nov 1, 2016 | 2 | 01:10 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |