Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Kozak 49.7% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 80.4%
Defensive zone
Kozak 52.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 60.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 60.9%
60.9%
39.1%
Nelson
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Nelson
Kozak
Last 9: Nelson 6-3 Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Kozak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kozak
0
1
Nelson
Kozak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
2
Nelson
Kozak
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
49.3% (294)
+1.6%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
60.0% (5)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
50.0% (40)
-6.6%
On penalty kill, Kozak has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Kozak is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (239).
Home / Away
Nelson
Kozak
Home
52.9% (654)
45.5% (145)
Away
48.9% (658)
52.6% (194)
By Period
Nelson
Kozak
P1
48.4%
53.4%
P2
54.3%
50.0%
P3
50.5%
44.3%
Final 5 min
51.9%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:49 | Defensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 19:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 2 | 17:15 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 09:21 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 16:32 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:09 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |