Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.8% vs Gourde 46.0% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 86.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 62.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 67.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 77.3%
77.3%
22.7%
Nelson
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Nelson
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Gourde
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Gourde
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (928)
47.2% (687)
+3.7%
Power Play
59.8% (179)
45.0% (20)
+14.8%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (205)
33.0% (88)
+10.4%
On power play, Nelson has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Nelson is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (854).
Nelson shoots left. Gourde is 46.6% vs left-shot opponents (522).
Home / Away
Nelson
Gourde
Home
52.9% (654)
44.4% (356)
Away
48.9% (658)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Nelson
Gourde
P1
48.4%
42.2%
P2
54.3%
50.0%
P3
50.5%
44.5%
OT
41.2%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
56.0%▬
55.5%
50.9%
Gourde
48.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 15:34 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 01:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 10:19 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 1 | 00:41 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |