Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 47.3% vs Monahan 51.2% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 59.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 60.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 60.0%
Result
Cal O'Reilly favored at 59.8%
59.8%
40.2%
O'Reilly
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
O'Reilly
Monahan
Last 9: O'Reilly 3-6 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Monahan
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
3
O'Reilly
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
O'Reilly
Monahan
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (800)
51.1% (11,407)
-4.6%
Power Play
50.4% (129)
53.6% (2,582)
-3.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (8)
45.9% (772)
+4.1%
On even strength, Monahan has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. O'Reilly is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (636).
O'Reilly shoots left. Monahan is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (9,335).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Monahan
Home
50.6% (480)
52.3% (7,387)
Away
43.2% (465)
50.2% (7,374)
By Period
O'Reilly
Monahan
P1
47.1%
51.0%
P2
46.7%
51.7%
P3
46.8%
51.0%
OT
54.5%
53.5%
Final 5 min
43.8%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
52.0%▲
50.5%
47.0%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 07:53 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 07:43 | Neutral | Cal O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 07:29 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 3, 2016 | 3 | 10:58 | Offensive | Cal O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2016 | 3 | 06:44 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 3, 2016 | 2 | 16:12 | Neutral | Cal O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2016 | 2 | 10:39 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 3, 2016 | 2 | 10:27 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 3, 2016 | 2 | 02:25 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |