Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Jarnkrok wins 57.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jarnkrok 51.1% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 87.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 71.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 71.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 71.4%
28.6%
71.4%
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Jarnkrok
2
0
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (19)
55.7% (856)
-3.1%
Penalty Kill
55.0% (20)
50.0% (144)
+5.0%
On penalty kill, Jarnkrok has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Jarnkrok is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (33).
Jarnkrok shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (530).
Home / Away
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
Home
63.2% (19)
55.5% (616)
Away
45.0% (20)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Jarnkrok
O'Reilly
P1
50.0%
58.1%
P2
66.7%
54.9%
P3
46.2%
53.9%
Final 5 min
36.4%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jarnkrok
48.0%▬
48.0%
53.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 13:28 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 15:40 | Defensive | Calle Jarnkrok |