Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +15.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Ritchie wins 38.9% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ritchie 39.9% vs Evans 52.2% (-15.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ritchie 93.7%
Defensive zone
Ritchie 61.3%
Neutral zone
Ritchie 82.7%
Result
Calum Ritchie favored at 72.0%
72.0%
28.0%
Ritchie
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Ritchie
Evans
Last 6: Ritchie 1-5 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
1
2
Ritchie
Evans
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
0
3
Ritchie
Evans
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ritchie
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
36.1% (302)
53.7% (3,740)
-17.6%
Power Play
50.0% (12)
60.6% (71)
-10.6%
On even strength, Evans has a +17.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Ritchie is 38.9% vs right-shot opponents (113).
Ritchie shoots right. Evans is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,301).
Home / Away
Ritchie
Evans
Home
38.1% (168)
53.3% (2,621)
Away
34.9% (146)
51.0% (2,418)
By Period
Ritchie
Evans
P1
33.7%
54.0%
P2
38.7%
50.9%
P3
37.3%
52.0%
Final 5 min
39.7%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ritchie
34.0%▲
32.0%
36.6%
Evans
50.0%▼
57.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 16:02 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 02:40 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 02:22 | Defensive | Calum Ritchie |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 05:18 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 05:14 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 05:09 | Neutral | Jake Evans |