Scouting Report
Casey Cizikas holds a +15.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Cizikas on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Cizikas wins 54.8% vs right-shot opponents — Mercer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cizikas 53.9% vs Mercer 41.9% (+15.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cizikas 65.4%
Defensive zone
Cizikas 90.4%
Neutral zone
Cizikas 86.7%
Result
Casey Cizikas favored at 85.0%
85.0%
15.0%
Cizikas
Mercer
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Cizikas
Mercer
Last 6: Cizikas 4-2 Mercer
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mercer
0
1
Cizikas
Mercer
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cizikas
3
0
Cizikas
Mercer
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cizikas
Mercer
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cizikas
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (544)
38.8% (263)
+16.2%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
35.3% (17)
+64.7%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (43)
54.5% (11)
-8.0%
On power play, Cizikas has a +64.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Cizikas is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (188).
Cizikas shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Home / Away
Cizikas
Mercer
Home
54.3% (291)
35.2% (145)
Away
54.8% (299)
43.2% (146)
By Period
Cizikas
Mercer
P1
58.3%
32.7%
P2
56.4%
42.7%
P3
49.8%
42.9%
Final 5 min
50.0%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cizikas
70.0%▲
60.5%
54.6%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 19:02 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 14:56 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 11:28 | Neutral | Casey Cizikas |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 08:53 | Offensive | Dawson Mercer |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 18:02 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 05:42 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |