Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Cizikas on defensive-zone draws (84% H2H, 19 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cizikas 51.8% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Cizikas leads 24-21 in 45 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 80.1%
Defensive zone
Cizikas 79.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 55.2%
Result
Casey Cizikas favored at 50.6%
50.6%
49.4%
Cizikas
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
21
(45 meetings)
24
21
Cizikas
Pavelski
Last 10: Cizikas 3-7 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
13
Cizikas
Pavelski
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cizikas
16
3
Cizikas
Pavelski
19 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Cizikas
Pavelski
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cizikas
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (8,814)
53.6% (8,791)
-0.2%
Power Play
54.9% (175)
58.2% (2,122)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (1,890)
50.9% (1,138)
-6.6%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Cizikas is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,838).
Cizikas shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Home / Away
Cizikas
Pavelski
Home
53.6% (5,448)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
50.1% (5,432)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Cizikas
Pavelski
P1
52.9%
53.5%
P2
51.1%
55.2%
P3
51.6%
53.9%
OT
50.0%
52.3%
Final 5 min
50.6%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cizikas
70.0%▲
58.0%
51.8%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2024 | 3 | 19:42 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 3 | 11:53 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 3 | 09:48 | Offensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 3 | 06:05 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 2 | 10:41 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 1 | 18:51 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 1 | 15:59 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 3 | 14:45 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 3 | 08:57 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 06:35 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 1 | 07:29 | Neutral | Casey Cizikas |
| Mar 19, 2022 | 2 | 16:45 | Neutral | Casey Cizikas |
| Mar 19, 2022 | 2 | 08:46 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Dec 7, 2019 | 1 | 08:20 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 3 | 06:15 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 1 | 06:21 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 3 | 18:20 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 3 | 17:19 | Neutral | Casey Cizikas |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 2 | 06:44 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 8, 2018 | 1 | 17:11 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |