Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Cizikas wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cizikas 52.3% vs Frost 54.9% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 80.7%
Defensive zone
Cizikas 71.1%
Neutral zone
Frost 50.8%
Result
Casey Cizikas favored at 56.5%
56.5%
43.5%
Cizikas
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Cizikas
Frost
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cizikas
1
0
Cizikas
Frost
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Cizikas
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cizikas
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (392)
54.1% (521)
-0.5%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
59.6% (141)
+40.4%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (37)
100.0% (5)
-56.8%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +56.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Cizikas is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (279).
Cizikas shoots left. Frost is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (458).
Home / Away
Cizikas
Frost
Home
50.5% (220)
57.2% (339)
Away
55.2% (210)
54.0% (328)
By Period
Cizikas
Frost
P1
56.3%
58.2%
P2
57.8%
55.6%
P3
44.8%
52.9%
OT
33.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
47.9%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cizikas
70.0%▲
58.0%
52.8%
Frost
74.0%▲
55.0%
55.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 16:04 | Defensive | Casey Cizikas |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 09:50 | Neutral | Casey Cizikas |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 11:51 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |