Casey Mittelstadt vs Dawson Mercer
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Casey Mittelstadt holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Mittelstadt wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Mercer shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 50.5% vs Mercer 41.9% (+11.7%)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 51.2%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 50.2%
Neutral zone
Mercer 52.2%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 50.3%
49.7%
50.3%
Mittelstadt
Mercer
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Mercer
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (141)
38.8% (263)
+10.8%
Power Play
54.8% (31)
35.3% (17)
+19.5%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
54.5% (11)
+45.5%
On penalty kill, Mittelstadt has a +45.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Mercer shoots right. Mittelstadt is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (68).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Mercer
Home
58.7% (92)
35.2% (145)
Away
42.0% (81)
43.2% (146)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Mercer
P1
47.7%
32.7%
P2
48.2%
42.7%
P3
56.7%
42.9%
Final 5 min
54.5%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
40.0%▼
50.0%
50.9%
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.2%