Casey Mittelstadt vs Frederick Gaudreau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Casey Mittelstadt holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Mittelstadt on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Gaudreau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 50.5% vs Gaudreau 43.9% (+8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 92.3%
Defensive zone
Gaudreau 63.8%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 70.0%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 78.3%
78.3%
21.7%
Mittelstadt
Gaudreau
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Mittelstadt
Gaudreau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Mittelstadt
3
0
Mittelstadt
Gaudreau
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
0
1
Mittelstadt
Gaudreau
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Gaudreau
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (141)
44.9% (414)
+4.7%
Power Play
54.8% (31)
31.8% (22)
+23.0%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
38.0% (129)
+62.0%
On penalty kill, Mittelstadt has a +62.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gaudreau shoots right. Mittelstadt is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (68).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Gaudreau is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (453).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Gaudreau
Home
58.7% (92)
42.6% (277)
Away
42.0% (81)
43.1% (288)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Gaudreau
P1
47.7%
44.1%
P2
48.2%
44.7%
P3
56.7%
39.5%
OT
33.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
40.0%▼
50.0%
50.9%
Gaudreau
40.0%▼
42.5%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 03:23 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 01:04 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 00:46 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 16:03 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |