Casey Mittelstadt vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Pageau on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 50.5% vs Pageau 59.0% (-9.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 86.6%
Defensive zone
Pageau 51.2%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 67.0%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 70.7%
70.7%
29.3%
Mittelstadt
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Mittelstadt
Pageau
Last 6: Mittelstadt 2-4 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
1
2
Mittelstadt
Pageau
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Mittelstadt
Pageau
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
0
1
Mittelstadt
Pageau
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (141)
59.4% (726)
-9.8%
Power Play
54.8% (31)
69.0% (42)
-14.2%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (1)
59.7% (221)
+40.3%
On penalty kill, Mittelstadt has a +40.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Mittelstadt is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (68).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Pageau is 60.9% vs left-shot opponents (723).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Pageau
Home
58.7% (92)
58.4% (430)
Away
42.0% (81)
61.0% (559)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Pageau
P1
47.7%
55.4%
P2
48.2%
61.8%
P3
56.7%
61.5%
OT
33.3%
75.0%
Final 5 min
54.5%
63.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
40.0%▼
50.0%
50.9%
Pageau
60.0%▬
60.0%
59.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2025 | OT | 00:39 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 10:29 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:57 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:54 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 08:21 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |