Casey Mittelstadt vs Tomas Hertl
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Mittelstadt wins 44.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mittelstadt 45.6% vs Hertl 54.3% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 17-10 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Mittelstadt 82.5%
Defensive zone
Mittelstadt 92.1%
Neutral zone
Mittelstadt 89.8%
Result
Casey Mittelstadt favored at 88.3%
88.3%
11.7%
Mittelstadt
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
17
(27 meetings)
10
17
Mittelstadt
Hertl
Last 10: Mittelstadt 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
5
Mittelstadt
Hertl
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
6
Mittelstadt
Hertl
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
5
6
Mittelstadt
Hertl
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mittelstadt
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (3,924)
53.9% (8,303)
-8.9%
Power Play
49.7% (666)
59.2% (1,995)
-9.5%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (96)
46.3% (806)
-8.8%
On power play, Hertl has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Mittelstadt is 44.1% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
Mittelstadt shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Mittelstadt
Hertl
Home
46.7% (2,317)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
44.3% (2,369)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Mittelstadt
Hertl
P1
46.7%
53.6%
P2
46.1%
54.2%
P3
44.0%
55.3%
OT
36.6%
46.9%
Final 5 min
43.6%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mittelstadt
40.0%▼
50.0%
45.5%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 01:41 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 06:22 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 16:41 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 16:38 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 18:42 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 18:33 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 15:24 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 15:20 | Defensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 05:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 03:07 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 05:47 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 3 | 02:44 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 07:17 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 08:47 | Offensive | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 14:40 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 1 | 11:15 | Neutral | Casey Mittelstadt |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 1 | 00:51 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 16:28 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 04:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 15, 2024 | 2 | 18:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |