Chandler Stephenson vs Connor McDavid
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Chandler Stephenson holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephenson 52.3% vs McDavid 47.8% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
McDavid leads 29-25 in 54 meetings
Offensive zone
McDavid 59.3%
Defensive zone
McDavid 55.4%
Neutral zone
McDavid 55.6%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 57.0%
43.0%
57.0%
Stephenson
McDavid
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
29
(54 meetings)
25
29
Stephenson
McDavid
Last 10: Stephenson 7-3 McDavid
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stephenson
11
10
Stephenson
McDavid
21 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stephenson
9
7
Stephenson
McDavid
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
12
Stephenson
McDavid
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephenson
McDavid
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (5,809)
47.7% (8,394)
+4.2%
Power Play
59.8% (1,113)
52.1% (374)
+7.7%
Penalty Kill
45.6% (825)
43.8% (281)
+1.8%
On power play, Stephenson has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McDavid shoots left. Stephenson is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (5,069).
Stephenson shoots left. McDavid is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (5,929).
Home / Away
Stephenson
McDavid
Home
52.6% (3,827)
49.3% (4,582)
Away
52.1% (3,920)
46.2% (4,467)
By Period
Stephenson
McDavid
P1
51.6%
46.5%
P2
52.3%
48.7%
P3
52.9%
48.3%
OT
57.4%
42.2%
Final 5 min
52.2%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephenson
44.0%▼
53.0%
52.4%
McDavid
52.0%▬
51.5%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 11:40 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 10:29 | Neutral | Chandler Stephenson |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 10:22 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 05:10 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 09:08 | Neutral | Chandler Stephenson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 02:15 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 2 | 12:30 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1 | 10:10 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 27, 2025 | 1 | 06:47 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:02 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 10:10 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 10:02 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 07:37 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 07:27 | Neutral | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:44 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 18:37 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 10:47 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 10:42 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 04:51 | Defensive | Connor McDavid |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Connor McDavid |