Chandler Stephenson vs Dylan Larkin
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 52.4%). Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephenson 52.0% vs Larkin 52.2% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Stephenson 50.7%
Defensive zone
Stephenson 60.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 52.8%
Result
Chandler Stephenson favored at 54.4%
54.4%
45.6%
Stephenson
Larkin
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Stephenson
Larkin
Last 10: Stephenson 5-5 Larkin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
3
Stephenson
Larkin
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Stephenson
Larkin
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stephenson
2
1
Stephenson
Larkin
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephenson
Larkin
Edge
Even Strength
52.0% (867)
51.1% (915)
+0.9%
Power Play
62.1% (248)
59.4% (261)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
39.5% (185)
48.2% (168)
-8.7%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Larkin shoots left. Stephenson is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (797).
Stephenson shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Home / Away
Stephenson
Larkin
Home
53.1% (672)
51.7% (686)
Away
51.1% (628)
53.0% (658)
By Period
Stephenson
Larkin
P1
54.2%
52.5%
P2
50.7%
52.7%
P3
52.0%
51.4%
OT
50.0%
61.3%
Final 5 min
52.1%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephenson
44.0%▼
53.0%
52.2%
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 08:52 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 05:20 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 15:31 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 13:17 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 09:14 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 3 | 00:33 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 19:41 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 15:55 | Neutral | Chandler Stephenson |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 09:37 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 05:17 | Neutral | Chandler Stephenson |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 14:18 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 18, 2025 | 1 | 10:43 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |