Chandler Stephenson vs Jean-Gabriel Pageau
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stephenson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stephenson wins 54.3% vs right-shot opponents — Pageau shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephenson 52.0% vs Pageau 58.9% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pageau 70.6%
Defensive zone
Pageau 88.4%
Neutral zone
Pageau 89.8%
Result
Jean-Gabriel Pageau favored at 81.7%
18.3%
81.7%
Stephenson
Pageau
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Stephenson
Pageau
Last 8: Stephenson 6-2 Pageau
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stephenson
3
0
Stephenson
Pageau
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stephenson
3
2
Stephenson
Pageau
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephenson
Pageau
Edge
Even Strength
52.0% (867)
59.3% (715)
-7.3%
Power Play
62.1% (248)
68.3% (41)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
39.5% (185)
59.7% (221)
-20.2%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +20.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pageau shoots right. Stephenson is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (503).
Stephenson shoots left. Pageau is 60.7% vs left-shot opponents (718).
Home / Away
Stephenson
Pageau
Home
53.1% (672)
58.1% (418)
Away
51.1% (628)
61.0% (559)
By Period
Stephenson
Pageau
P1
54.2%
55.3%
P2
50.7%
61.5%
P3
52.0%
61.6%
OT
50.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
52.1%
63.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephenson
44.0%▼
53.0%
52.2%
Pageau
58.0%▬
59.0%
59.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 08:21 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 08:12 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 15:50 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 09:36 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 08:48 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 04:08 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 01:08 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 01:04 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |