Chandler Stephenson vs Mathew Barzal
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Chandler Stephenson holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stephenson on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Stephenson wins 54.3% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephenson 52.0% vs Barzal 41.9% (+11.9%)
H2H factor
Stephenson leads 12-4 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Stephenson 77.0%
Defensive zone
Stephenson 95.3%
Neutral zone
Stephenson 88.4%
Result
Chandler Stephenson favored at 87.8%
87.8%
12.2%
Stephenson
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
4
(16 meetings)
12
4
Stephenson
Barzal
Last 10: Stephenson 7-3 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stephenson
3
2
Stephenson
Barzal
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stephenson
6
1
Stephenson
Barzal
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stephenson
3
1
Stephenson
Barzal
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephenson
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
52.0% (867)
40.9% (469)
+11.1%
Power Play
62.1% (248)
34.2% (38)
+27.9%
Penalty Kill
39.5% (185)
28.6% (7)
+10.9%
On power play, Stephenson has a +27.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Stephenson is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (503).
Stephenson shoots left. Barzal is 39.4% vs left-shot opponents (398).
Home / Away
Stephenson
Barzal
Home
53.1% (672)
39.2% (250)
Away
51.1% (628)
41.3% (264)
By Period
Stephenson
Barzal
P1
54.2%
46.3%
P2
50.7%
36.7%
P3
52.0%
38.5%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
52.1%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephenson
44.0%▼
53.0%
52.2%
Barzal
44.0%▬
45.0%
40.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 07:00 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 03:47 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 17:03 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 06:07 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 02:19 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 12:20 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 12:01 | Neutral | Chandler Stephenson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 08:43 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 06:33 | Offensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:14 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chandler Stephenson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 13:20 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 07:26 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 03:29 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chandler Stephenson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |