Chandler Stephenson vs Tomas Hertl
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephenson 52.0% vs Hertl 57.4% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stephenson 74.1%
Defensive zone
Stephenson 94.6%
Neutral zone
Stephenson 83.8%
Result
Chandler Stephenson favored at 80.5%
80.5%
19.5%
Stephenson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Stephenson
Hertl
Last 8: Stephenson 1-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
5
Stephenson
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stephenson
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Stephenson
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephenson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.0% (867)
58.5% (845)
-6.5%
Power Play
62.1% (248)
56.2% (281)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
39.5% (185)
62.9% (35)
-23.4%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +23.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Stephenson is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (797).
Stephenson shoots left. Hertl is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (719).
Home / Away
Stephenson
Hertl
Home
53.1% (672)
60.0% (582)
Away
51.1% (628)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Stephenson
Hertl
P1
54.2%
52.1%
P2
50.7%
63.6%
P3
52.0%
58.8%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
52.1%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephenson
44.0%▼
53.0%
52.2%
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 19:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 16:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 03:06 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 19:25 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 2 | 10:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 17:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 17:39 | Defensive | Chandler Stephenson |