Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Coyle wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Stenlund 54.2% (-4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stenlund 58.8%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 83.5%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 64.3%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 65.9%
34.1%
65.9%
Coyle
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Coyle
Stenlund
Last 5: Coyle 4-1 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
2
0
Coyle
Stenlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
Stenlund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Coyle
Stenlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (853)
56.2% (650)
-3.9%
Power Play
44.4% (63)
53.2% (47)
-8.8%
Penalty Kill
44.5% (191)
51.6% (312)
-7.1%
On power play, Stenlund has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Coyle is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (274).
Coyle shoots right. Stenlund is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Coyle
Stenlund
Home
49.0% (567)
56.9% (483)
Away
52.0% (540)
52.5% (526)
By Period
Coyle
Stenlund
P1
49.5%
54.2%
P2
49.4%
53.2%
P3
52.6%
56.9%
OT
46.2%
42.1%
Final 5 min
49.1%
57.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Stenlund
56.0%▼
59.0%
54.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 14:08 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 10:31 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 05:57 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 19:36 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 08:14 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |