Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Coyle wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Bourque shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Bourque 46.5% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bourque 51.6%
Defensive zone
Coyle 71.6%
Neutral zone
Coyle 57.8%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 61.5%
61.5%
38.5%
Coyle
Bourque
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Coyle
Bourque
Last 5: Coyle 3-2 Bourque
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
Bourque
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Coyle
Bourque
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Coyle
Bourque
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Bourque
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (853)
46.8% (186)
+5.5%
Power Play
44.4% (63)
23.5% (17)
+20.9%
Penalty Kill
44.5% (191)
42.9% (7)
+1.6%
On power play, Coyle has a +20.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bourque shoots right. Coyle is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (274).
Coyle shoots right. Bourque is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (58).
Home / Away
Coyle
Bourque
Home
49.0% (567)
41.5% (106)
Away
52.0% (540)
48.1% (104)
By Period
Coyle
Bourque
P1
49.5%
40.6%
P2
49.4%
39.0%
P3
52.6%
51.7%
Final 5 min
49.1%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Bourque
48.0%▲
46.5%
44.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 06:19 | Defensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 01:30 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 10:34 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 08:48 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 05:22 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |