Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.5% vs 49.8%). Look for Coyle on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Backlund 49.8% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Coyle 59.2%
Defensive zone
Backlund 60.1%
Neutral zone
Backlund 50.2%
Result
Charlie Coyle favored at 55.1%
55.1%
44.9%
Coyle
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Coyle
Backlund
Last 7: Coyle 4-3 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
3
2
Coyle
Backlund
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
1
Coyle
Backlund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
Backlund
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (853)
50.5% (944)
+1.8%
Power Play
44.4% (63)
51.5% (66)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
44.5% (191)
47.1% (297)
-2.6%
On power play, Backlund has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Coyle is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Coyle shoots right. Backlund is 49.6% vs right-shot opponents (369).
Home / Away
Coyle
Backlund
Home
49.0% (567)
48.1% (636)
Away
52.0% (540)
51.4% (671)
By Period
Coyle
Backlund
P1
49.5%
45.4%
P2
49.4%
54.1%
P3
52.6%
49.2%
OT
46.2%
55.6%
Final 5 min
49.1%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Backlund
50.0%▬
50.0%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 09:28 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 04:01 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 19:13 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 17:58 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 13:03 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 16:54 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 16:49 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |