Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Coyle wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 94.1%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 51.5%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 79.3%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 71.1%
28.9%
71.1%
Coyle
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Coyle
Stamkos
Last 5: Coyle 4-1 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
1
0
Coyle
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
2
0
Coyle
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Coyle
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (853)
57.1% (368)
-4.8%
Power Play
44.4% (63)
55.2% (96)
-10.8%
Penalty Kill
44.5% (191)
50.0% (10)
-5.5%
On power play, Stamkos has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Coyle is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (274).
Coyle shoots right. Stamkos is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (121).
Home / Away
Coyle
Stamkos
Home
49.0% (567)
53.9% (230)
Away
52.0% (540)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Coyle
Stamkos
P1
49.5%
56.7%
P2
49.4%
54.1%
P3
52.6%
59.2%
OT
46.2%
62.5%
Final 5 min
49.1%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 11:40 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 08:19 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 10:27 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 01:06 | Defensive | Charlie Coyle |