Scouting Report
Charlie Coyle holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Coyle on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Coyle wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Coyle 50.5% vs Johnston 48.0% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnston 64.1%
Defensive zone
Coyle 72.2%
Neutral zone
Coyle 55.4%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Coyle
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Coyle
Johnston
Last 7: Coyle 4-3 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Coyle
2
1
Coyle
Johnston
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Coyle
Johnston
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Coyle
2
1
Coyle
Johnston
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Coyle
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (853)
47.3% (666)
+5.0%
Power Play
44.4% (63)
50.7% (69)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
44.5% (191)
51.4% (35)
-6.9%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Coyle is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (274).
Coyle shoots right. Johnston is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (202).
Home / Away
Coyle
Johnston
Home
49.0% (567)
47.5% (364)
Away
52.0% (540)
48.0% (406)
By Period
Coyle
Johnston
P1
49.5%
49.4%
P2
49.4%
46.9%
P3
52.6%
47.1%
OT
46.2%
47.1%
Final 5 min
49.1%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Coyle
50.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 00:10 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 14:47 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 05:41 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 11:58 | Neutral | Charlie Coyle |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 09:03 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 08:56 | Offensive | Charlie Coyle |