Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings). Kelly wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kelly 50.1% vs Carter 53.2% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Kelly 56.3%
Defensive zone
Kelly 75.4%
Neutral zone
Kelly 66.2%
Result
Chris Kelly favored at 64.9%
64.9%
35.1%
Kelly
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
12
(20 meetings)
8
12
Kelly
Carter
Last 10: Kelly 6-4 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
9
Kelly
Carter
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kelly
6
1
Kelly
Carter
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Kelly
Carter
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kelly
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (3,010)
53.3% (8,728)
-2.2%
Power Play
60.6% (71)
57.3% (1,554)
+3.3%
Penalty Kill
44.7% (689)
46.3% (1,087)
-1.6%
On power play, Kelly has a +3.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Kelly is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,370).
Kelly shoots left. Carter is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (7,955).
Home / Away
Kelly
Carter
Home
52.6% (1,965)
54.7% (5,752)
Away
47.4% (1,813)
51.6% (5,632)
By Period
Kelly
Carter
P1
49.2%
53.6%
P2
49.1%
52.8%
P3
51.9%
53.1%
OT
53.5%
56.5%
Final 5 min
50.3%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kelly
38.0%▼
43.5%
50.1%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2016 | 1 | 16:04 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 10, 2016 | 1 | 15:47 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 10, 2016 | 1 | 02:38 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 11, 2016 | 3 | 19:53 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 11, 2016 | 2 | 04:01 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 11, 2016 | 1 | 05:46 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 31, 2015 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Chris Kelly |
| Jan 31, 2015 | 2 | 19:32 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 2, 2014 | 2 | 14:04 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Dec 2, 2014 | 1 | 10:08 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 10, 2011 | 3 | 16:13 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 10, 2011 | 1 | 10:34 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 17, 2011 | 3 | 10:29 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 17, 2011 | 3 | 06:12 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 17, 2011 | 2 | 08:35 | Defensive | Chris Kelly |
| Nov 15, 2010 | 3 | 01:24 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 15, 2010 | 2 | 17:07 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 15, 2010 | 2 | 16:51 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 15, 2010 | 2 | 09:55 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 15, 2010 | 2 | 07:00 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |